Nevada 2030 Energy Time Horizon

A baby that is born in 2009 will be 21 years old in 2030. This helps put the year 2030 in perspective.

2030 is far away because the 2009 newborn will be totally grown up by then. It is near because it is just the beginning of a long adult life for the 2009ers.

Photo by floridapfe

A baby born in 2009 will be 21 years old in 2030. Can we plan adequately for future sustainability?

Interestingly, there are several academic and scientific projections of global energy demand that use a time frame up to 2030.

If "2030 Energy Horizon" is googled, it is engaging how many websites are listed that use 2030 as an important time line for both energy consumption and development.

Babies born today can be expected to live through this new century. Most of them will live until near the end - or even all the way to the conclusion - of the 21st Century.

It is utterly impossible to know what the 2009ers will experience, deal with or become over the course of their lives. Yet, it is our responsibility to at least set them up, as best we can, with infrastructures of substainability in the 2030 Energy Time Horizon.

Because I have lived in Las Vegas for 10 years, with no plans to change location, the primary focus of my thinking about the future is on Las Vegas and Nevada.

By Robert L. Candiotti, May 8, 2009

At the first International Energy 2030 conference held by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company on November 1 and 2, 2006, it was said by H.E. Mohammad Dhaen Al Hamili, Minister of Energy, that world energy demand "will grow by approximately 50 percent by 2030."

He stated that fossil fuels will continue to provide 90 percent of the world's energy needs up until that time.

Yet, it is important to note that the Abu Dhabi Minister, at the International Energy 2030 Conference, gave much attention to alternative energy development. He stated, "Alternative energy is already making great influence on the oil and gas industry, both in the short term and long term planning. And it is imperative that we have to educate ourselves, look at current technologies, future trends and compare efficiencies, costs and environmental advantages."

Photo of oil fields in Kuwait by jeniq8

Significantly, a Minister of Energy in the Middle East oil supports alternative energy development.

Probably referring directly to the projected insatiable petroleum hunger of China and India, the Abu Dhabi Minister stated that the importance of alternative energy is a "pressing reality."

The Minister noted that the population of the world by the year 2030 is projected to be eight billion, compared to less than seven billion today. (It is interesting to note that in the year 1800, world human population is estimated to have been still less than one billion).

He concluded that the year 2030 represents a "new energy age" that, among other things, will be a watershed for "the arrival of new technology."

It is significant that the Minister of Energy, from a world center of petroleum reserves, recognizes the essential importance of alternative energy development.

Of course, looking closely at the future of world energy needs, there is more involved than projected demand. There is also the monumental issue of energy security.

At an April 16, 2009, forum at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, titled "Minimizing the Impact of Conflict on U.S. Energy Security," Dr. Tyrus W. Cobb - with an extensive background in energy and security - pointed out that 62 to 68 percent of the oil the U.S. requires must be imported, plus China, India, South Korea, Japan and Vietnam are "looking at the same sources" of energy as the United States.

"There will be serious conflict among these countries" who are all seeking oil where it is available around the globe, Cobb emphasized.

At the conclusion of the forum, Cobb said the countries that will be inescapably competing for the world's available petroleum must work with each other to control the fuses of possibly explosive conflicts.

Also at the UNLV forum, organized by UNLV's Institute for Security Studies, in partnership with Nevada Alliance for Defense, Energy & Business and the Nevada World Affairs Council in Las Vegas, Dr. Ted Robert Gurr - founder and co-author of the biennial report "Peace and Conflict: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy" - noted there are 26 significant armed conflicts in the world today.

He said all of Africa is unstable. He named many oil-producing countries that are both "factional and fragile." Being reliant on these sources of oil keeps the U.S. in a very insecure position. He said the U.S. must be committed to "a long-term effort to minimize oil dependence."

Another speaker at the UNLV forum on April 16, 2009, Dr. Dennis Pirages - co-author of From Resource Scarcity to Ecological Security - delineated five key aspects of the "contemporary energy predicament." Basically, he said, gas and oil are limited, competition for the resources is up with more intensity to come, and the U.S. is increasingly getting its petroleum from "unreliable suppliers."

Many experts comment on the relationship between oil-production and world conflict. In the May/June 2008 issue of Foreign Affairs, in an article titled "Blood Barrels, Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict," by Michael L. Ross, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Los Angeles, the author states that "oil-producing states make up a growing fraction of the world's conflict-ridden countries. They now host about a third of the world's civil wars."

Oil breeds conflict within many countries, and "oil-producer-based conflict is likely to grow in the future," Ross adds.

He states that countries, such as Canada and Norway, which are well-governed with diverse economies and educated populations have avoided internal oil conflicts.

Ross states oil wealth in many countries "can cause economic instability, often helps support insurgencies and encourages separatism" from central governments of some countries.

Another publication, the May 13, 2008, report by the National Security Network, states, "As long as the U.S. needs massive amounts of fossil fuel imports - oil and gas - to keep our economy humming, we are at the mercy of global markets and a small number of oil-exporting countries that have disproportionate power over us. Investing in energy security is one of the smartest things we can do for our own national security, as well as our economic and environmental future."

In the section titled Policy Recommendations, the report notes, "We must reduce dependence on foreign oil and natural gas."

Logically, one of the policy recommendations is to invest in "green technology."

The National Clean Energy Summit 2009 will take place in August at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The road to green technology leads directly to Nevada where the year 2030 is relevant to many of the state's inspired thinkers, enlightened planners, visionary business people and energetic researchers.

Several of the state's leaders are serious about creating a sustainable environment for future generations. They can comprehend the importance of this question: What will life be like in Nevada in 2030 when this year's group of newborns reaches 21 years of age?

It is announced that the National Clean Energy Summit will be returning to the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, in August, 2009.

Last year's National Clean Energy Summit at UNLV was extraordinary.

It turns out that many of the speakers at the 2008 National Clean Energy Summit are prominent in the news in 2009: U.S. Senator Harry Reid, John Podesta, T. Boone Pickens, Janet Napolitano, and others. University of Nevada teachers and students, several Nevada politicians, as well as executives now in the Obama administration, are continuing to keep Nevada and the U.S. Southwest vibrant and central with regard to alternative energy development.

As noted earlier in this article, several authorities on the "contemporary energy predicament" have said the United States must do something to develop alternatives to foreign oil and gas.

There seems to be a widespread seriousness, as well as enthusiasm, in Nevada when it comes to establishing state leadership in the country for alternative energy development.

One more milestone in Nevada's efforts to completely transform the state's energy operations by 2030 will be the National Clean Energy Summit 2.0 on August 10 at UNLV, and the immediately following 2009 UNLV Energy Symposium on August 11 and 12.

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