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Age Of Oil

   Take a step back, Nevada, and consider the Age of Oil.
   Take a step back, and look at the graph below.
   The graph shows global oil consumption from the birth of Christ to the year 3000. Looking at the graph, it appears oil consumption is a rather brief oddity in human history. Taking up a tiny portion of what in itself is a miniscule period of this planet's existence is the Age of Oil.
   Various sources state the Age of Oil began in the early 1900s and will end around the middle of this century.
   The simple graph depicts the uniqueness and the urgency of this time. 
    

age_of_oil.jpg
All graphs on this page courtesy drmillslmu.com/peakoil

   By Robert L. Candiotti, November 25, 2008
   What is known as "Peak Oil" -  as defined by Wikipedia as "the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached" -  is just about now. There is disagreement among experts when, exactly, is the time of Peak Oil, but most agree it is pretty close to the turn of this century, i.e., right now.
   What the graph above shows is the peak of the Age of Oil is around the year 2000.

oil_discoveries_declining_since_1964.jpg

   Regarding Peak Oil, the optimists say it will happen within a decade, or so. The pessimists say it has already happened. In any case, of interest is the graph above which shows that oil discoveries have clearly been declining for decades.

   There is no question that global oil production will peak, and the world will change dramatically.

   Someone who is considered an expert on trans-continental oil depletion is Ali Samsam Bakhtiari who passed away on October 30, 2007. Bakhtiari, a former director of the National Iranian Oil Co., and a trustee of London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC), called the peak of worldwide oil extraction "the event of the century."

   In an essay titled "The Century of Roots," published April 2007, Bakhtiari says this: "After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based. It will come to place pressure upon the use of all other sources of energy -- be it natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and all types of sundry renewables, especially biofuels. It will eventually come to affect everything else under the sun."

   Bakhtiari is certainly not the only credible academic to say this type of thing about Peak Oil. For example, Walter Youngquist, a consulting geologist and internationally known petroleum expert who lives in Oregon, says this in his "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population" essay: "Reaching and passing the peak of world production will be the most important happening in human history to date, affecting more people in more ways than any other event. It will happen, and during the lives of most people now living."

   At the "International Conference On Energy And The Environment" held in Las Vegas October 27-29, 2008, presented by The Global Commerce Forum, another oil industry expert emphasized the seriousness of the condition of petroleum supplies in the world. Dan Johnson, Manager of Government and Public Affairs-Chevron Corporation, said, "The defining question of the century" is how are we going to meet the energy needs of the future? 

foreign_oil_consumption.jpg

   Do not expect people to give up their oil very easily. Thirst for oil is unquenchable.
   As can be seen in the graph above, after the U.S. reached its own domestic Peak Oil point in 1970, North American demand for oil has been going up and up. The graph shows, in 2008, U.S. consumption of foreign oil reached 70 per cent of the country's petroleum use.
   And demand still will increase. Also speaking at the Global Commerce Forum in Las Vegas last fall, Dr. Oliver Hemmers, Director, Office of Strategic Energy Programs, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, stated, "90 per cent of U.S. oil will be imported by 2030."
   At the same conference, Rayola Dougher, Senior Economic Advisor, American Petroleum Institute, said, "the U.S. will require 19 per cent more energy in 2030 than 2006, and the world will need 50 per cent more by 2030." She added, "In 2030, oil will still be king." 

energy_use_future_drmillslmu_com.jpg

   But take a look at the graph above.
   Around the year 2030, the use of oil, gas and coal plummets. Quickly and steeply.
   What will the world be like then? It doesn't look good, does it?
   Also, take a look at the green line, the "renewables" line. It shows an increase starting now, but it never takes off.
   In this graph, renewables never really contibute much to the total energy panoply.
   So, take a step back, Nevada.
   Right now, Nevada has supportive political and academic people who are enthusiastic about, and committed to, renewable energy development in the state.
  
   Also, more than just about any of the 50 states, Nevada has abundant natural resources for solar, geothermal and wind power expansion.
   Tomorrow's numbers for the use of petroleum are confusing and disconcerting: growing demand and declining production. The Age of Oil will pass at some point. While there is still transition time, will Nevada seize the opportunity to develop its formidable renewable energy resources?
   The milieu for renewable energy development in Nevada probably cannot improve much more than it is today.
   Take a step back, Nevada, and decide where all the local human energy for renewable energy is going to go. 

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